- There are many theories about the “whale” who bet millions on Trump’s victory.
- As of Wednesday, the person or entity had bet $46 million on Trump winning the election.
- “Trump is extremely popular among gamblers since the 2016 election,” said one betting market expert.
The “whale” betting big on former President Donald Trump’s victory in next month’s election has left political and betting commentators scratching their heads, although they have a few theories about what could happen.
One person or entity is believed to be behind four accounts on crypto-based betting platform Polymarket that have staked about $46 million on the former president’s victory, according to Polymarket data on Wednesday.
It is unclear who owns the four Polymarket accounts – Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie – although they have displayed characteristics that suggest they are related, the Wall Street Journal said last week.
The betting activity has raised questions about who the apparent whale is and what their motives might be, beyond simply making money. It has left pundits wondering what is going on, although some were willing to offer their own betting theories.
Here’s what some had to say about the “whale” who is throwing his weight around in the betting market.
1. Betting is an influence campaign
Paul Krishnamurty, a betting market expert and political writer for BetOnline, said the big bets could be an attempt to influence the election by generating publicity for the former president and making it appear that his chances of winning are much higher than polls suggest.
Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris on Polymarket, which estimates he has a 64% chance of winning the election, while the odds of a Harris victory are around 36% on the site. That’s a stark contrast to the polls, with Trump and Harris virtually tied in the latest polling average of 538.
Krishnamurty said it was impossible to know whether the bets were a true opinion of how the race would swing.
“But it’s equally possible to believe that the bets were placed with the intention of changing the narrative in Trump’s favor,” he added.
Google search interest for “Donald Trump” has increased 24% over the past week, according to search analytics tool Glimpse. Search volume over the past month peaked on Sunday, when Polymarket’s apparent whale hit the markets.
Google search interest for “Donald Trump” increased 31% over the past week, according to Glimpse. Google Trends/Glimpse
Trump had also climbed to the No. 1 trending topic on social media as of Wednesday morning, according to social intelligence firm LunarCrush.
Similar types of bets have been seen in previous elections, Krishnamurty said. He pointed to several elections in the UK and the US, when some bookmakers were placing large sums of money on a clear “loser” candidate.
“I would just say that this kind of thing has happened before,” he added. “Trump has been uniquely popular among gamblers since the 2016 election, when he was actually an underdog.
If it is an attempt to influence the election, Krishnamurty doubts it will be successful.
“I find it hard to believe that anyone is changing the way they vote based on who is leading the betting markets,” he said.
Shayne Coplan, founder of Polymarket, defended the market’s integrity in an interview with The New Yorker this week.
“There’s nothing stopping people from going and buying something that they think is cheap, but they’re not doing it right now because nobody has enough conviction that it should be worth more,” Coplan told magazine, referring to betting on. Harris winning.
2. It is a real bet on the outcome of the election
The accounts may simply be too positive for a Trump victory on Nov. 5, said Joe Vezzani, CEO of LunarCrush, which monitors social media, cryptocurrency exchanges and influencers to track crypto sentiment.
Vezzani and other commentators have said betting markets can be more accurate than polls, given that people are betting real money and often react more quickly to developments in the race.
He said the increase in betting in favor of Trump may also be a function of the approaching election.
“I think the way people make decisions when there’s money on the line is different than the way they would make a decision if there wasn’t,” Vezzani said, adding that he believed the election would still be close. “I think it’s still TBD for this election,” he said.
3. The ‘whale’ is trying to shift the betting odds to win more money
The user or users behind the Polymarket accounts may be trying to deliberately move betting odds with the aim of making more money, Krishnamurty speculated.
The boom in betting on the former president has increased the value of those positions. Krishnamurty noted that Polymarket allowed users to close their positions ahead of the presidential election.
“Let’s take the hypothetical that it’s a real plan to manipulate the market, shall we?” Krishnamurthy said. “You get money if you want it. So there’s no risk.”
If the bet splits into four accounts, it could be a sign that a whale is trying to cash in on short-term market moves, Vezzani said. Multiple accounts give a trader an opportunity to sell quickly from several positions to catch small moves in the market, he added.
“One thing is that Polymarket, it’s not a bet on an outcome. You don’t have to wait until election night, so you can add or move money whenever you want based on the price increase,” he said.
Again, there’s no way to prove the theory without the account holder or holders coming forward and explaining their motivation, Krishnamurty and Vezzani said.
However, bets on Trump at Polymarket have increased over the past week. As of Wednesday morning, positions open for a Trump win increased to $756 million, compared to $482 million in positions open for a Harris win.
Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.